Eric Nolan: Look from the trend of crude soybean oil | crude oil | Soybean oil | crude oil prices

      Soybean oil prices as crude oil prices tend to be leading indicators of last year is no exception。 Although WTI crude oil prices between June 22, 2017 to January 2018 and 25 jumped from $ 42 to $ 66 a barrel, but soybean oil traders unmoved。
Soybean oil prices on November 9, 2017 cents per pound reached a peak, and then began to fall 10%, after two and a half months, crude oil prices reached a recent peak (Figure 1)。
Since 2005, the price of crude oil prices has been a leading indicator for the now 11 times。   Here are the price of the previous two previous interaction: 1, from January 2005 to August 2006, WTI crude oil price rose from $ 4.3 to $ 77, up nearly doubled。
Soybean oil for this round of rebound in crude oil prices subdued in 2006, peaked in early July cents, but fell about 10% in the prior month WTI crude oil prices reached a peak。 To January 2007, WTI crude oil prices plummeted from $ 77 to $ 51, a drop of catching up oil prices。
  2, although the price of crude oil and soybean oil prices both fall, but oil prices bottomed out in November 2006, two months earlier than crude oil, and then began a strong rebound, to March 2008, the price rose from US cents cents。 WTI crude oil prices two months after the start of a strong rebound, but eventually gains comparable with soybean oil, from $ 51 in January 2007 to $ 147 in July 2008。
  3, after the March 2008 peak, oil prices rebound in crude oil is still sounding the alarm。 Soybean oil prices fell to 71 cents from 48 cents, or more than 30%, and then rose to 68 cents in 2008, June 16。
After almost soybean oil prices reached this lower second peak month, crude oil prices in 2008 July 11 peak of $ 147。 When the WTI crude oil prices reached record highs, oil prices fell from a peak of 5% in June, almost 10% lower than the historical high of March 2008。   4, during the financial crisis, oil prices on December 5, 2008 plunged to 28 cents, then rebounded by the end of。
In contrast, 2008 December 24, crude oil prices have not hit bottom for another three weeks, this time closing price of $。
In mid-2009 and 2010, the recovery in both markets, soybean oil and most of the time the first rise in crude oil, there are some minor ups and downs during the。
  5, soybean oil prices on February 3, 2011 peaked just below 60 cents, and in 2008 rose nearly doubled compared to low。
In contrast, WTI crude oil price in almost three months after the April 29, 2011 reached a peak of 114 US dollars。   6, this time, soybean oil and WTI crude oil movements began to appear obvious differences。
In the Middle East, the rise of the Arab Spring movement, the market perceived geopolitical risks, WTI crude oil and other oil benchmark trading price in the next three years, equivalent to only half the 2011 high of about 25%。
By contrast, oil prices in early 2014 from a high of 2011 fell 40%, after a brief rally, plunged again in the summer of 2014, then restored to about half of the April 2011 price。
This indicates that crude oil prices plummeted in the second half of 2014, WTI crude oil prices eventually dropped to $ 26。
  7, oil prices again took the lead hit bottom in August 2018 fell to a low of 25 cents, compared with April 2011 peak fell 60%。 After a full six months, WTI crude oil prices bottomed out in February 2016, fell to $ 26, down compared with the local high of more than 75% in 2011。
  As shown, when crude oil prices bottomed February 11, 2016, 8 oil prices from lows of 20%。 April 19, 2016 Soybean oil prices reached 41 cents a local peak, compared with the low rise more than 60%。
Then oil prices also rose, but almost two months after the peak in June 8, 2016, a little over $ 50, compared with the low rise nearly 100%。   9, when the price of crude oil on June 8 dollars per barrel reached a high of 51 local, bean prices have fallen by 12%, which culminated in the July 22, 2016 bottom, fell to 29 cents。
WTI crude oil prices two weeks after August 2, 2016 bottom, fell to $ 39。
  10, soybean oil prices at December 27, 2016 reached a peak of 37 cents to 11 April 2017, fell to about 31 cents。 Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices to between 12 December 2016 to March 2017 of 7 days stabilized at around $ 54, then finally on June 22, 2017 adjusted down to $ 43, about three months later than the soybean oil。   11, soybean oil prices on September 5, 2017 to reach a peak of 36 cents。
WTI crude oil prices continued to rebound to January 25, to $ 66。
  Soybean oil prices so far show no sustained recovery, which may herald the coming weeks WTI crude oil prices will fall。
However, from the brief history of the relationship between soybean oil and crude oil above point of view, if oil prices finally bottomed out, you need to pay attention to whether the WTI crude oil prices will bottom out again。 The Bursa Malaysia (Bursa Malaysia) palm oil futures from $ converters can also see a similar relationship when Malaysian Ringgit。
  On the other hand, contrary WTI crude oil and beans options traders worried about the risk of direction。
Although they believe that the future will not have a high risk of money (ATM) options volatility of both products are closer to historic lows, but not near record highs (Figure 2), but the "smiley face map" option volatilities to look, soybean oil traders worried about upside risks (Figure 3), whereas WTI traders worried about the downside risk (Figure 4)。   This may be because traders fear Bean products (soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal) prices may be nearing the marginal cost of production of many manufacturers, so the downside is not too large。 In contrast, WTI crude oil price is trading much higher than many producers around 40 dollars per barrel estimate the marginal cost of production, including many major US shale oil producers swing。