The $ 2016 you did not think so beautiful | dollar | dollar index | Fed

  Sina Wall Street Beijing 23 hearing for US $ 2015 can be described as a banner year, many investors expected the rally to continue into 2016, but CNBC's latest comments but said the dollar in 2016 and probably will not as strong as we expected, but this is a comfort for emerging market currencies in terms of。   Now it seems almost destined to rise to more than 9% of the performance of the end of the year, in large part is because before that historic meeting of the Federal Reserve in December, is expected to open under the tightening cycle, people have to buy dollars reason。
  Now, the Fed has been in Europe, China, Australia and Japan are also expected to provide more stimulus to raise interest rates, and significant differences in estimated global monetary policy will become the driving force for further strengthening of the US dollar。   However, the United States nearly a decade to raise interest rates for the first time has passed nearly a week, and the dollar on Wednesday but suffered a fourth consecutive trading day decline。
This makes emerging market currencies gained a rare respite – Tuesday appreciated by 1%, reaching the highest point of a month for four consecutive trading day higher, while the Indian rupee is also close to the highest point in nearly a month。
  Including National Bank, including Citigroup and Australia, many people expect the dollar next year will be only 5% appreciation, while Deutsche Bank is expected to be 10%。   National Australia Bank head of foreign exchange strategy at Lille Art (RayAttrill) interview that, from the position in the international currency market perspective, "do more than $ speculative trading efforts have been less extreme," and the dollar is expected to open in 2016 when will the situation in mid-2015 and is similar。
  Historical evidence also supports this judgment moderate US dollar next year。   Switzerland treasure BIA head of research at Matthews (MarkMatthews) said: "We have intuition dollar will continue to appreciate, but if you look closely in the past seven Fed rate hike cycle, you will find that the first rate hike start after the weak dollar trend is in fact often, but not necessarily stronger after。
"United Crown too, head of fixed-income Briscoe (HaydenBriscoe) pointed out that because of this trend, investors may now consider that this emerging market currencies have been highly suppressed。
  "We may not rise to the high point of the old, but 10% of the average return is entirely possible。
"Many emerging market countries such as Brazil, India, Malaysia and Indonesia are commodity exporters, the dollar impact on global energy prices as a direct result of the blow to their growth and government revenue。
  Also, the appreciation has been obtained also become a limiting factor in the dollar's rally future。
  BessemerTrust chief investment officer Patterson (RebeccaPaterson) recently pointed out in the report: "The trade-weighted dollar is now approaching its absolute historical average, and crossed the moving average ten years。
It appears that it is relative to the value of a series of currency, including the euro, we have been overestimated。 "BKAssetManagement general manager Lean (BKAssetManagement) in a report on Monday noted that progress regardless of the dollar in the first months of 2016 which is slow or rapid, the party will end by July。
  "In the second half of 2016, we believe that rising interest rates and a strong dollar would force the Fed tightening to slow speed, then that is the arrival of the top and bottom of the dollar and other currencies moments。 "(Zijin)。