Investment benchmark: continued guarding the Better Business class will become a mass consumption market outlook, the main thread

In a stock market rebound two days later, today's shock consolidation ,, Shenzhen Component Index, fell slightly collective。Downturn in market sentiment, volume shrinking, the two cities combined turnover of less than 380 billion yuan, the industry sector rose more or less。For the market outlook, dongfangcaifuwang summarizes the major institutions and famous investment point of view, for reference。    In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is expected to join in June, the last two trading days of blue-chip stocks ushered in a white horse and a strong rebound, we still believe that overall, the market is expected during this time period will face a rare window to do more, and that expected size of the disk-cap stocks will be more balanced during。But the rise of market weakness is full of twists and turns, the specific operation suggest that investors still do not blindly chasing the high, mainly to bargain hunting。For fundamentals which itself is not bad, because the causes of the market value adjustment deep blue chip investors can actively seize the opportunity to bargain intervention, the market for high heat medicine, chips and other sections suggest that investors must be careful screening, Quweicunzhen select industry leading bargain involved, and some have continued to weaken, the valuation has been more reasonable such things, unmanned core business in the future prospects of huge plates is recommended that investors bargain hunting, a firm hold。    Two misconceptions – Consumer downgrade, real estate to enhance consumer crowding。We believe that trading down is essentially a non-data based on perceptual judgment。Changes in consumer demand is difficult to produce adverse changes in economic growth, income growth and stable time。From 2013 to 2017, the proportion of total consumer spending, food + clothing expenditure of urban residents in China from 38.Continued to decline 5% to 35.8%, the proportion of medical + entertainment + transportation + communication expenditure to total expenditure of education and culture from the 29.4% rising to 32.5%, therefore, the so-called trading down consumer rational consumption structure as well as the phenomenon of migration in nature, rather than down the hierarchy of needs, but also for current income to maintain a good growth rate, coupled with the wealth effect of rising house prices, it is too early to talk about trading down。The real estate consumer crowding-out effect will be marginal as the real estate slowdown in sales decline。    Looking ahead, MSCI index included soon, funds accelerated the pace of configuration, the blue chips rose across the board, led the other indices, the latter can be sustained if the amount of energy released, the stock index is expected to shock upstream style, continue to impact 3200。May we judge the market's optimistic side, the blue-chip repair of the market is expected to open, focusing on finance, real estate and consumer leader。    ① Comparative overview history, comprehensive GEM GEM means mechanized small plates, small plates that PE is in the range from low to high history 53,38,31,34% quantile, medicine, computers, electronics, media, communication history PE 40,68,31,35,71% quantile。② contrast value and overseas and looking at the valuation of the GEM stocks relative value compared with a premium of 39% quantile in history, representing a premium of overseas growth stocks at historically 18-25% quantile。③ to MSCICHINA international basis of valuation, net of A-share market premium, premium growth stocks after institutional GEM the valuation premium is really your decision whether or not the core index, the index is currently at record 40% quantile。    By the information management and the gradual implementation of new regulations, the superposition of bad financial deleveraging of stocks advancing and armor into the MSCI, growth stocks and other-than-expected quarterly and positive factors, market volatility will increase significantly this year, investors believe should look for a bottom-up quality stocks this year, the main opportunities may exist in or oversold growth stocks leading the part of the consumer and the blue-chip leader。    Boao Forum held in 2018, the financial sector and opening up policy continued to exceed expectations, especially to enhance the amount of interconnection daily limit on shares of MSCI added a key year cut-off point, the market is expected from MSCI inclusion of a two-step stock go ahead for the implementation of a。MSCI After responding, welcomed the Chinese decision to expand the stock market interconnection quota, while recognizing that this year still maintain a two-step resolution of the 2017 annual meeting in mid-walk into the rhythm of。5% is the inclusion factor, MSCI plans implemented in two steps: the first step in the scheduled semi-annual index review in May of this year, the implementation June 1; the second step quarterly index review in August, September 3 implement。The first step is the ratio of Embodiment 2.5%, the proportion of the second step of Embodiment 5%。    Approximately 229 A shares or included in the MSCI index system, the total amount of the current 231 samples or less, but two-way in and out of stocks may affect up to nearly 100。Potential to be newly included stocks mainly in the sector since the beginning of better performance such as health care, consumer goods and other fields, it rose due to promotion from the original mid-cap stocks to large-cap stocks; potentially be moved out of the subject is focused in the period of poor performance products, brokerage and other plates。    From the point of view of large industrial enterprises, R & D intensity (R & D expenditure / main income) the higher the distribution industry in the electronics, pharmaceutical and equipment manufacturing。However, compared with the United States, R & D intensity of the industry there is still much room for improvement: 15 years of US manufacturing average R & D intensity of up to 4.4%, while 16 years of China's manufacturing industry R & D intensity is only about 1%; even the leading pharmaceutical R & D intensity (1.7%), electronic (1.8%), there is still no small compared to the US 15 years horizontal distance, in the equipment manufacturing capacity is still trying to catch up。    April export growth of 12.9%, slightly better than we expected 9.8%, 3 year growth in RMB.7% overall better than expected。April imports up 21.5%, also better than expected, the value of the yuan year on year growth of 11.6%, processing trade imports and strong crude oil, natural gas import volume and price are the main driving factors。April trade balance for the 287.$ 800 million surplus resume as scheduled, but due to strong imports, trade surplus of $ 7.6 billion lower than the same period last year。    For determine the market outlook, the current level of bond yields have returned to a stalemate in October 2017 ago, with the advent of peak supply, coupled with the recent growth is expected to improve, there is adjusted upward pressure on yields。The basis of the second quarter, the bond market long and short intertwine, but also to lay a new round of stalemate。For the full year, to determine the economic downward trend, short-term bond market adjustment without having to pessimistic in the central bank monetary policy easing in the financing and support needs of students fall, bond trading opportunities still exist。