Yan leap: the first anniversary of regulatory policies, how Beijing price trend?

  Prior review in March 2017 Beijing real estate control policies, we also need to be traced back to 2016, the "930 Deal"。 Upgrading from a policy-level look at the fourth quarter of 2016 is tightening "version", and by the mid-2017 "317 Deal" belong "version"。
So strong policy signal significance, that policy tightening is a sense of anxiety because the market does not eliminate, the need to increase the dose regulation。
  We look at the policy in mid-March of 2017。 First, the implementation of identified Housing has identified loans policy。
This policy may be popular understanding that if you have experience in the past had to buy a house, or have had the experience of mortgage loans, now buy a house in Beijing, will be identified as the two sets of purchase behavior。 In other words, in terms of qualifications and the purchase down payment, will be carried out in accordance with the standard two suites。 Second, to take the tougher differentiated credit policy, namely ordinary housing area will take 60% down payment requirements, rather than ordinary housing is taking a 80% down payment requirement, which is to continue to reduce leverage property mortgage loans behind for its own funds not enough buyers have significant impact。
Third, to suspend payment of more than 25-year term loan, in other words, the loan period may be compressed, the number will increase each month for the month。
Fourth, take a restricted policy for buyers to conduct business on behalf of the holders of three years after the purchase was for sale house。
  From the policy point of view, all kinds of contradictions Watch the Beijing property market。 For example, "Housing has identified loans" policy, will directly curb demand part of the purchase of two sets, so that the rest of the loan resources and listings can be more or just need to import the first set of housing demand, reflecting the fairness of the regulation of real estate in principle。 As for the compression of the loan term, in fact, it is implied from the credit level, so buyers apply for mortgage loans will be more rational。
In the limited sale and other content, for all types of practices to avoid individual buyers purchase were regulated, even if an individual go to registered buyers of the company, but also want to sell is not easy, in other words, the mechanism of cash It can truly be destroyed。
  So analysis point of view, Beijing's policy was more stringent, both in severity relative to past years of history, but also relative to other cities, the policy stayed firmly control the release of housing demand taps。
  Assessment of the policy can see many indicators, we can choose to analyze a visual indicator that the trend of prices。 Data point of view, 2016 to 2017, the Beijing housing prices can "rub rub rub" to describe, when the monthly average duration of more than 30,000 from level to level quick access to more than 40,000。
If the control policy was not timely, then in fact the second half of 2017, Beijing housing price completely might reach 5 million yuan。
However, the actual data, after "317 regulation", the Beijing housing prices basically remained at the level of yuan。
Part of the month of January 2018 is similar to the beginning, does appear to be more than the average price of 50,000 yuan, but the structure of supply and real estate-related。
So put aside part of the monthly data, we can see that the housing bubble was the real suppression。
  This series of stable real estate market phenomenon, not simply a policy role。
In fact, Beijing in mid-2017 follow-up to a lot of new supporting policies, and partly reflected in the market norms。
For example, in mid-2017 fourth quarter, Beijing thorough investigation of a number of intermediaries。 Similar to investigate greater significance for the consolidation of the effects of policies have a positive effect。 The so-called "no smoke without fire", many interfering factors the real estate market, in fact, and some intermediaries, developers does not regulate the operation of enterprises related to the effects of policies so often been discounted。 Regulate market order and such practices help make the medicine really play, really promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market。   With such all-round effect, we see that during the first anniversary of the Beijing property market finally quiet down, has a market pricing mechanism is also more efficient the。
Purely from this perspective, the effect is obvious control policy。 Of course, we need to see long-term development of the real estate market, it is necessary to antipyretics, nursed back to health but also drugs, but also need their own physical fitness。
This is the 2018 market regulation and operation Note content。
  Appropriate and necessary reflection。 He says this is because Beijing property market there have been some new problems and new situations。
For example, Beijing in early 2018, there have been some phenomenon of land unsold。 We speak in front of the regulation is actually more from the perspective of housing demand, robust property market supply and demand requires full attention。 So, in 2018, the supply-side structural reforms and "room to live not fried," the idea that we can operate on the current housing prices confusion, the pressure of the funds, enterprises and other concerns to be innovative research, to regulate the operation of enterprises, activate the potential of business enterprises。   Beijing property market hard-won stability, the future need to continue to consolidate。
Next to fully study new situations and new risks。
For example, the next supply will accelerate the rhythm, or some high-end real estate market will accelerate, which could lead to higher prices again。
To study how such new issues, and then how to eliminate price bubbles, are worthy of attention of regulators。 As for the market supply and demand for both parties involved to respect laws of the market, the fear of regulatory policy, to make independent policy, are involved in the property market in 2018 needed to have the quality。 The judge, for Beijing is applicable for other cities are also applicable。
(New Jingwei APP) Author Yan Yuejin (E-House Research Director, Institute think tank Center, New Jingwei special expert) [expert] Introduction Yan Yuejin, E-House Research Institute think tank Center research director, research and policy direction for the real estate market, at the same time big data for real estate, investment risks and other regional markets insights。   Following the new latitude and longitude public micro-channel number (micro-letter search for "new latitude" or "jwview"), to see more exciting financial information。
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